This week worked out as planned, but friday, by the end of the day, might have give a clue for next week. I am still bearish on EU and GU, BUT there might be some upmoves next week, to get rid of some retail shorts. We had a strong “London fix” today, with a probably false break below afterwards. I was watching retail last week…and most were long and buying every dip, which I didn’t understand, but well…then later thursday, we finally broke down, after all week topping out. Retail was still long biased and buying the drop…then we had a late friday drop and it was obvious retail switched to shorts heavily and is still short. But the market is not a free candy store…if something looks too good to be true, it mostly isn’t. 😉 If retail keeps selling this next week, I rather won’t. Not right away, at least. From watching and analyzing the EU chart on one minute scale, alongside the news that were being posted, I felt like 1215-18 was a trap to trap as many shorts as possible. I may be wrong on this one…but I think we will resume this bear move when most of retail is out of their trades, either margin called or long biased again. There is no point to short 1250 on EU and 2540 on GU, which were the closing prices today. We will likely go higher first. If I am wrong, no gain, if I am right, no loss, so either way better to stay out first. I am not recommending to go long, though! I would start looking for shorts on EU above 1300 again and for GU above 2650-2700. Ideally we will go even higher, or possibly re-test or break 1420 to get rid of current shorts. That would be an ideal short next week. So my advice is, stay out, watch the charts and wait for an opportunity. Long term nothing has changed, targets are still bearish, but short term, no need to be in a big drawdown until it happens.
And EG still “hates” to stay above 9000 or close to it, so still an easy short from that area. Long term target is still 8400, but the tight range might be here for a while.
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