I will start my analysis with GU, since I am not going to trade it this week, unless I see a clear direction. My target from 4 weeks ago(analysis from september 26) was hit to the pip this week, as seen on the chart below.
But friday’s PA was very misleading, I don’t like it a bit. EU was going strongly up all day, GU down all day…so one of those pairs was “wrong” and I hate to trade GU unless I see something clear on the chart…and now I see both options as possible, 3300 and also 2700. And since we are in the middle, there is nothing to trade for me, at least nothing medium term or long term, scalping might be fine, we will see during the week. EG looks better when it comes to risk to reward ratio…long term we should be heading towards 8500 or less. And every positive brexit news will spike GU up and take EG down…and like I said many weeks ago, the deal is almost a 100% certainty and now its clear to everyone, it seems. So not expecting many negative news, when it comes to brexit, anymore. But I still wouldn’t long GU at these numbers, so just waiting for something more clear on the chart.
This week will be mainly about EU and its “evil twin” UCHF, as we have the ECB conference coming up on thursday. I think all week will be about waiting for the perfect short. It might start dropping right away, from the current 1860-80 area or it might go up before ECB, above 1900 and drop from 1950-2000, we have to wait and see. Traders with good money management should be fine either way. On the H1 chart, we have a clear decision zone between 1800 and 1820, if bulls can protect this one, they will probably take it higher from there, before ECB. If bears take it below 1800 and manage to stay there safely, we should be heading lower. My medium term target is 1637 and a minimum target is 1710. So the only question is if we go higher first or if the week starts bearish right away.
And don’t forget, next week is the last week of the month, so it might be tricky and misleading, with all the news coming up at the same time.
