This week, USD hit my first target of 92, but there should be a little correction, before it resumes the uptrend towards 94-95. First reason is friday’s PA after NFP release, where bulls didn’t do much anymore, even though the numbers were outstanding and the second was the strong London fix topping on the same day. In other words, bulls looked a bit tired, after a strong week and now need to rest a bit, before they take over again. ECB week is perfect for that. EU did a quick dip below 1900 and instantly resumed above and afterwards did some heavy bottoming around 1905-1910. That makes me believe that it will retrace a bit next week. Its hard to say if we’ll have a “typical” ECB week, with EU going up all week and then dropping on thursday, or if its going to be a range week. I can see 2000-2015 to be hit again and thats where I would be looking for shorts again. Other than that, it will be safe to wait until thursday and plan the biggest trades for then. The chart will be more clear by then also.
USDCHF was the bigger gainer this week. It definitely needs to correct some, but I wouldn’t hold the shorts for too long. 9300+ is a good spot to short scalp, though. In theory, I can see even 9140 to be re-visited again, but its probably safer to wait for 9200-9220 only, maybe 9250 even. The best time to be long on EU and short on UCHF should be early in the week, after that I would just let it be and wait for ECB.
UJ started a strong uptrend and almost hit my 2021 target, even though I thought it will take months to get there, as seen on the chart below, from january. Anyway, its a good time to short scalp it early in the week, too, most retail traders started shorting around 106, so shorting now, above 108, is much less risky. But short term only, UJ still has room to go to the upside.
