Last week worked out very nicely, with EU bouncing off 1760, as planned. On friday we hit 1908, where bulls got tired and couldn’t take it any higher anymore. But the important thing was the NY session and the London fix, the last one in july, with heavy bottoming above 1850, from where we got a bounce towards 1875 before the day ended. So this are will be important next week, too. Last week, we had a strong support at 1760 and this week we might have created a new support at 1850. The key area next week will be 1908. Bulls need to break it to go towards new targets, which for me are 1960-2000. The biggest events are on thursday and friday, first a meeting of Bank of England and on friday big US news. So if bulls take over early in the week, I am curious how high they can take it before the news days. The best trade of the week seems to be EG again, with heavy bottoming above 8500, 8640 is a safe target with a good profit to risk ratio. USDCHF is another pair to watch, as it is close to 9000 again, which might be a good buy area, if bulls manage to protect the area for the first days of the week. In the past few weeks, EUR and CHF were out of sync…normally they are equally strong or weak, but while CHF was very strong most of july, EURO was stuck in a tight range and only broke out of it after FED this week. So it will be interresting to watch both currencies and how they perform. If for example EU spikes up towards my target of 1960-2000 and UCHF manages to protect 9000 at the same time, it will be a good indicator to start buying. And even if 9000 breaks, the 8800-8900 is still a good spot to buy for medium to long term targets. Other than that, market will be more clear by thursday, so by then good entries should be easy for both BOE and NFP on friday.
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