EU made a quick fake spike above 1.20 early this week, which made many retailers bullish and buying every dip, which is no surprise, as they are mostly wrong, anyway. Reality is, EU is still stuck in the same range and with ECB coming on thursday, it might be stuck there until then. For less experienced traders its better to stay out of the market until wednesday-thursday, because the market may make a lot of fake moves both ways until then. Its more likely to break to the downside, below 1800 than above 2000, this week. But like I said, if you are not confident about either side, just stay out early in the week, to avoid being trapped in a bad trade for 3 days or even longer.
For me, dollar is bottoming and I am expecting a spike up, but thats just me, there are still a lot of retail dollar bears, who are only seing the short side. As for numbers, I am not going to predict any, simply because its an ECB week and it would be pointless, I will take whatever the market gives me until the conference or beyond. What I CAN predict for this week is a lot of whining and moaning from retailers on forums, opening trades too soon and then complaining about market manipulation. My analysis is below, take it with a grain of salt.
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