As I said last week, Thanksgiving week is a hard one to trade and it tends to go in one direction to trap retailers by the end of the week. Which seemed to be the case this week also. I was watching the PA closely and to me, this looks like a typical bull trap. Strong bottoming on the USD chart, very strong rejection on GU below 3400 and a friday fakey on EU, with a strong close at 1960. And seing how everyone has bullish predictions on EU, big players did the job well, to fool retailers. Now when everyone is convinced about an upcoming EU bull, we can start looking for short opportunities. Fundamentally, brexit is bad for both, EU and GU, deal or no deal, doesn’t matter. It will create a big uncertainty for months to come, possibly all year next year. My first big target on GU is 2900, with some bumps on the way, depending on the volatility is in december, but either way, 2900 seems like a safe target for me. When it comes to EU, I expect 1770 to be hit, with a possible bump between 1850-1870. For targets beyond that, we need to wait where the monthly candle closes in both november, on monday, and december. Its too early to predict anything beyond those levels now.
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