EU bears have been suffering for a while. 2 weeks ago, it was expected…one week ago, it was expected…but this week, I didn’t expect it at all! Technically, this week made no sense and it can be best illustrated by the fact that the biggest hourly candle happened during the FIRST London hour of the week! We had an ECB week, along with fundamental data…and yet, the first hour of the week made the biggest candle, without a re-test of 1975 whatsoever. Something is not right with this move…and I am expecting it to correct very soon…and after that, it might do another crazy thing and drop even more when people start buying it lower. Because in my experience, a “crazy” move in euro is mostly followed by even a crazier one. And right now, we have an uptrend of 400 pips with ZERO correction on the daily chart, so without any profit taking. Here is the interresting part…MAY is many times a reversal month and whatever direction starts in may, in many cases goes on until the end of the year. Next week will give me a first clue in this, as its the last week of april, with a FED meeting in between. Since 1980 was easily broken to the upside this week, my analysis from 2 weeks ago comes to play now. I expected the high to be between 2050-2150, which I think will stay as the high and the correction should start from this area. And like I predicted, I already read some “analysts” talking about 1.30 and higher this week. 🙂
Other USD pairs are showing strong bearish signs on bigger time frames, so this should all help dollar to gain some next week or to reverse alltogether. AUD, NZD and GBP are all bearish into may…
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